import Axiom

namespace d5cyd4wr

def ComplexityPremium : Prop :=
  "the cost of complexity and inefficiency that rises as systems add AI without removing overhead"

def PredictionMethodology : Prop :=
  "the practice of making specific predictions about outcomes and using whether they are right as feedback on whether one is on the right track"

def MarketCollapsePredictionAccuracy : Prop :=
  "the measured accuracy of directional market predictions over a declared sample, distinguishing a real track record from an asserted one"

def ShortingComplexityThesis : Prop :=
  "the thesis that complexity and inefficiency will rise as people add AI, so shorting complexity is the trade"

def CalibrationThreshold : Prop :=
  "the declared correctness rate above which a prediction track record is real rather than asserted (50%)"

def faith_friday_origin_of_methodologyPayload :=
  "Faith Friday (2025-09-19, https://hitchhikertothefuture.substack.com/p/faith-friday) is the origin of the prediction methodology: make specific predictions about outcomes and use whether they are right as feedback on whether one is on the right track; the more one can predict, the better one knows one is doing. It is also the origin of the shorting-complexity thesis and the stated definition of Time Violence"
axiom faith_friday_origin_of_methodology_auth : Axiom.AuthenticatedTerm ("hitchhiker2thefuture", faith_friday_origin_of_methodologyPayload, 1787096010)
def faith_friday_origin_of_methodology : Axiom.Statement "hitchhiker2thefuture" faith_friday_origin_of_methodologyPayload 1787096010 := ⟨faith_friday_origin_of_methodology_auth⟩

def faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fogPayload :=
  "Faith Friday states: proof does not matter if the people you need to prove something to do not have the ability to understand it. This is the origin of the verification-fog asymmetry between practitioners and the market"
axiom faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fog_auth : Axiom.AuthenticatedTerm ("hitchhiker2thefuture", faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fogPayload, 1787096010)
def faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fog : Axiom.Statement "hitchhiker2thefuture" faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fogPayload 1787096010 := ⟨faith_friday_origin_of_verification_fog_auth⟩

def claim_004_shorting_complexityPayload :=
  "CLAIM-004 (origin: Faith Friday 'shorting complexity', 2025-09-19; informed by AcadeResearch 2026 cohort): as enterprises add AI, complexity and inefficiency will rise before they fall - AI-adopter overhead ratios (G&A plus R&D as percent of revenue) will expand in the investment phase before contracting. Falsifier: AI-adopter overhead ratios contract immediately at scale, or no AI-adopting enterprise shows an investment-phase overhead step-up"
axiom claim_004_shorting_complexity_auth : Axiom.AuthenticatedTerm ("hitchhiker2thefuture", claim_004_shorting_complexityPayload, 1787096010)
def claim_004_shorting_complexity : Axiom.Statement "hitchhiker2thefuture" claim_004_shorting_complexityPayload 1787096010 := ⟨claim_004_shorting_complexity_auth⟩

def claim_005_calibration_thresholdPayload :=
  "CLAIM-005 (origin: Faith Friday prediction methodology, 2025-09-19; 9/22/25 option-trade record): Leo's public directional predictions about market outcomes will be correct more than 50% of the time over a declared sample, establishing a real (not memetic) track record. The 87% figure was memetic, not calculated. Falsifier: correctness at 50% or less over the declared sample. Initial sample: UNH Dec25 400p (direction right, already ITM, weak hit), INTU Apr26 400p (big hit), ACN Mar26 200p (near-exact hit), ADP Jan26 200p (direction right, timing wrong, partial), VIX Dec25 30c (missed), TSLA Dec26 500c (unresolved)"
axiom claim_005_calibration_threshold_auth : Axiom.AuthenticatedTerm ("hitchhiker2thefuture", claim_005_calibration_thresholdPayload, 1787096010)
def claim_005_calibration_threshold : Axiom.Statement "hitchhiker2thefuture" claim_005_calibration_thresholdPayload 1787096010 := ⟨claim_005_calibration_threshold_auth⟩

end d5cyd4wr